Friday, February 20, 2004
The numbers game
From Talking Points Memo:
In his noon press briefing yesterday, Scott McClellan listed as one of the signs the economy was on the right track the fact that "there have been more than 366,000 new jobs created in the last five months." And just an hour earlier, in a brief chat with reporters before meeting with the President of Tunisia, the president said: "I'm pleased by the fact that since August there's been 366,000 new jobs, in one survey."
Now, the problem here is that everyone at the White House from the president on down is trumpeting this number like it's a good thing, when in fact, it's not.
If I'm not mistaken there's a general consensus among economists that in our current economic circumstances we need roughly 150,000 new jobs created each month just to break even -- basically, just to keep up with a growing working age population.
So just to break even on the employment front we needed about 750,000 new jobs to have been created over the last five months. In fact, the economy created just less than half that number. So basically, 366,000 new jobs in five months isn't very good at all.
Keep your head in the clouds, George, and keep reaching for the stars!
posted by chris at 3:32 PM
Back to the drawing board
The Bush administration is abandoning the core idea of its plan to hold regional caucuses for an Iraqi provisional government and will instead work with the United Nations and Iraqis to develop yet another plan for the transfer of political power by June 30, U.N. and U.S. officials said yesterday.
The decision, forced by rejection of the caucus system by a wide range of Iraqis, means that the Coalition Provisional Authority led by the U.S. administrator, L. Paul Bremer, will instead hand over authority to a caretaker government until direct elections can be held, officials said.
In a meeting at the United Nations yesterday, Secretary General Kofi Annan told a gathering of diplomats with interests in Iraq that the Iraqis themselves should determine the participants and form of a caretaker government that will be credible to Iraq's disparate society, according to U.N. officials who attended.
Story. And just why is that June 30 date so damn important, anyway? Is that for us or for them?
posted by chris at 1:59 PM
Hospitals can provide discounts to uninsured
The Bush administration encouraged hospitals on Thursday to give discounts to uninsured patients and to financially needy Medicare beneficiaries.
Such discounts are permissible under federal fraud and abuse laws, the government said, in a clarification requested by the hospital industry.
Hospitals have been criticized in the last two years for charging uninsured people much more than they charge people with employer-sponsored health insurance. Group health plans often negotiate rates lower than the prices charged to people without insurance.
Tommy G. Thompson, the secretary of health and human services, explained the administration's position in a letter to the American Hospital Association.
"Hospitals can provide discounts to uninsured and underinsured patients who cannot afford their hospital bills and to Medicare beneficiaries who cannot afford their Medicare cost-sharing obligations," Mr. Thompson said. "Nothing in the Medicare rules or regulations prohibits such discounts."
Mr. Thompson encouraged hospitals to provide discounts. Dennis G. Smith, acting administrator of the federal Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, said: "Serving the uninsured is a high calling. We want to encourage our partners in the private sector to help."
That's great and all, but wouldn't it just be easier to provide universal coverage to everyone?
posted by chris at 12:37 PM
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Thursday, February 19, 2004
Science fiction
The Bush administration is guilty of misrepresenting scientific knowledge and misleading the public, a group of America's most senior scientists claimed yesterday.
They said the government had manipulated information to fit its policies on everything from climate change to whether Iraq had been trying to make nuclear weapons.
The open letter from the independent Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS) said: "When scientific knowledge has been found to be in conflict with its political goals, the administration has often manipulated the process through which science enters into its decisions.
"This has been done by placing people who are professionally unqualified or who have clear conflicts of interest in official posts and on scientific advisory committees; by disbanding existing advisory committees; by censoring and suppressing reports by the government's own scientists; and by simply not seeking independent scientific advice."
The letter was signed by 60 senior US scientists, including 20 Nobel prize winners, such as the physicists Steven Weinberg and James Cronin and the biologists Eric Kandel and Harold Varmus.
Story here. And the full report can be found here. (Thanks, Scott)
posted by chris at 4:36 PM
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Wednesday, February 18, 2004
The power of positive thinking
President Bush gave Florida voters a preview Monday of his campaign pitch that the economy is vibrant and can be nourished with optimism and tax cuts, although mixed economic indicators prevent him from boasting of a boom.
Bush, speaking at a window and door factory in the state that decided the 2000 election, chatted with small-business workers and executives at a talk-show-style forum with "Strengthening America's Economy" emblazoned on two fake windows that the White House had created as backdrops.
The artificial windows revealed an inviting blue sky. Bush portrayed a similarly sunny outlook with remarks that used "optimistic" or "optimism" seven times in 49 minutes. He repeatedly stressed the power of positive thinking as an engine of job creation.
"A lot of economic growth depends upon the psychology of the people making decisions all throughout our economy," he said. "So far, the entrepreneurs have been upbeat."
See, unemployment is all YOUR fault cause you're not being positive enough.
posted by chris at 2:55 PM
A picture says a thousand words
Well, maybe not a thousand.
posted by chris at 2:50 PM
Did we say 2.6 million? We meant 2.6
The White House backed away Wednesday from its own prediction that the economy will add 2.6 million new jobs before the end of this year, saying the forecast was the work of number-crunchers and that President Bush was not a statistician.
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White House press secretary Scott McClellan, asked repeatedly about the forecast, declined to embrace the prediction which was contained in the annual economic report of the White House Council of Economic Advisers.
Unemployment and the slow pace of job creation are political liabilities for Bush as he heads into a battle for re-election. Despite strong economic growth, the nation has lost about 2.2 million jobs since he became president.
Asked about the 2.6 million jobs forecast, McClellan said, "The president is interested in actual jobs being created rather than economic modeling."
He quoted Bush as saying, "I'm not a statistician. I'm not a predictor."
Yeah, but don't you think he could hire one?
posted by chris at 1:12 PM
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Tuesday, February 17, 2004
If you don't talk about it, it doesn't exist
The Bush administration is proposing to double spending on sexual abstinence programs that bar any discussion of birth control or condoms to prevent pregnancy or AIDS despite a lack of evidence that such programs work.
A study by researchers at the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on declining birth and pregnancy rates among teenagers concludes that prevention programs should emphasize abstinence and contraception.
"Both are important," said Dr. John Santelli, the lead author of the study, which has not been published.
In Minnesota, a study found that sexual activity doubled among junior high school students taking part in an abstinence-only program. The independent study, commissioned by the state's health department, recommended broadening the program to include more information about contraception.
I guess just talking about not doing it really made the kids want to do it. (Via TBogg.)
posted by chris at 1:42 PM
In honour of President's Day
South Knox Bubba has compiled an excellent array of Bush's accomplishments thus far. Here are just a few:
Rigged an election in conspiracy with brother Jeb in Florida to take office.
Appoints administration made up of former executives and government officials who helped Saddam develop WMD, were involved in illegal arms sales, traded with the enemy in violation of U.S. law, and whose companies now profit from war.
Stonewalled GAO and Congress request for documents relating to Enron influence of Federal Energy Policy.
Representing party of smaller government and less Federal spending, creates largest bureaucracy in U.S. history and signs largest entitlement spending program in U.S. history.
Although recovering now, presided over a 30% loss in Dow Jones Industrial Average, nearly a 50% loss in NASDAQ, and a 33% loss in S&P 500, wiping out trillions in wealth. Despite a recent extended bull market, the markets have yet to recover back to where they were the day Bush took office.
Presided over an increase in consumer debt to all time record high of over $2 trillion and an increase in personal bankruptcy filings to an all time high of 1.6 million households in 2003.
Despite taking over after the longest and largest economic expansion in U.S. history, presided over the loss of more than three million jobs, with the highest unemployment in a decade and nearly nine million people out of work.
The list is extensive and well-documented, so check it out and pass it along. (Thanks to Tom.)
posted by chris at 11:57 AM
Getting rid of that troublesome recount process
The Department of State has notified elections supervisors that touchscreen ballots don't have to be included during manual recounts because there is no question about how voters intended to vote.
While touchscreen ballot images can be printed, there is no need and elections supervisors aren't authorized to do so, Division of Elections Director Ed Kast wrote in a letter to Pasco County Supervisor of Elections Kurt Browning.
Florida. The bastion of democracy. (Via Kos.)
posted by chris at 11:12 AM
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